Dems oppose SS reform because they secretly know GOP is right
This is the dumbest thing I've read so far in 2005. David Brooks says the following thing in today's column about why it will be hard for Republicans to win Democratic support for Social Security...
View ArticleHere Comes More Monkeypoop - Politico/Michelle Obama Thesis
So the Politico has breathlessly announced it has obtained Michelle Obama's senior thesis written while at Princeton in 1985. The big drama?As a young black student on the Princeton campus, she often...
View ArticleWow, Clinton Attacked 12-Year Old Rape Victim's Credibility [UPDATED]
In a breathtaking story published today in Newsday, details of Hillary Clinton's involvement in a decades-old rape case in Arkansas comes under close scrutiny.It is really worth reading the whole...
View ArticleSlate's delegate calculator sucks, why it's even worse for Clinton
(A diary from yesterday that takes a look at The Math and delegates, with slight editing in the intro. SusanG)The issue here is that the way this is discussed in the media narrative does not fully...
View ArticleNow Let's Do Some Superdelegate Math
Let's start with the standard caveat. Superdelegates are free to change their minds, as several already have. We all know this. This is within the rules. Obama supporters know this, Clinton...
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Wyoming Watch: How to Scorekeep the Wyoming Caucuses [UPDATING]
It's Saturday, March 8, and the significant state of Wyoming - one of 50 states that matter - is going to the polls.Consider this both a "how to scorekeep" and live thread, for those in attendance who...
View Article[Updated] Put Up or Shut Up on Anti-Math Argument [w/POLL]
Thomas Jefferson once said:"The first principle of republicanism is that the lex majoris partis is the fundamental law of every society of individuals of equal rights; to consider the will of the...
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[UPDATING] Mississippi Primary: Tracking the Delegate Vote
It's Tuesday, March 11 and Mississippi - one of the 50 states that needs a president - is headed to the polls.Most of what America knows in its poplar culture about Mississippi is about Delta blues,...
View ArticleAn Open Letter to Jon Tester and Brian Schweitzer
Dear Jon And Brian,I am using your first names not just because I've worked for both of you in Montana, but because I look up to both of you with great respect. This letter is public, personal appeal...
View ArticleDelegate Math: Where We Stand After Iowa Redux [Updated]
With the Iowa Caucus county convention results now in, and Obama leading 25-14-6, Barack O'Bama leads Hillary Clinton 1418-1251 in pledged delegates.That's a lead of 171.Update:169, based on...
View ArticleIn Our Hearts, Brothers and Countrymen Once Again
Recently I've been noted for delegate math and caucus day/primary day diaries.But on this day, the day of what I hope will be a heroic speech, I find myself more emotional than usual.My favorite...
View Article"Eloquent But Empty" This, John McCain.
"Eloquent but empty," goodbye.Cynical accusers of "cultism," you people know nothing.John Edwards, wondering if Barack Obama is tough enough to earn the magnificent gift of his precious endorsement,...
View ArticleReconsider Pat Buchanan
I'm not implying that Pat Buchanan's comments should be reconsidered, or that he isn't a racist. I'm suggesting we reconsider our plan of action. This is a moment of education, not of gotcha and...
View ArticlePopular Vote Projections - Obama Will Win It
A critical caveat: I reject the notion of the popular vote as a values-based basis for superdelegates selecting one candidate over another. In the general election, every state but Maine and Nebraska...
View ArticleTime To Eviscerate: "Will You Support Hillary Clinton If...?"
In poker there is a useful concept called the freeroll.It means pretty much what it sounds like it means. There is a free "roll" or chance that a player can win more than he/she is currently...
View ArticleWho Wants To Travel and Help Obama?
So, this is a relatively short diary.You can contact me at pocket99s at gmail. See below for the 4 things I need from your email if you see yourself fitting the generalities and couple particulars I've...
View ArticleMath: Revised Predictions PA Turnout/Popular Vote Ranges
Like the Blowout Principle is the mathematical undermining of the Slate delegate calculator, the Closed/Open Principle is undermining turnout predictions for the remaining states.A couple weeks ago, I...
View ArticleI Cried Again About Obama Today
It's always a tiny thing that moves me to tears. The speeches are masterful and I always come away from them thinking what an authentic, decent man this is, and how amazing his mom must have been....
View ArticlePopular Vote: Listen Up, Obama Surrogates (Updated)
Dear Obama Surrogate,You are going to be on cable news shows in the next two weeks, and you are going to be confronted with the notion of the popular vote being a legitimate measuring stick.I must say...
View ArticleAn Important May 6 Delegate Math Point: Viability
This is a short diary to emphasize a point I hope gets made by Chuck Todd and by Obama surrogates on the night of May 6 about pledged delegates.Though Barack Obama will not be at 1627 to get the...
View ArticleVouching For the Other Guy's Bad Faith
There is a pattern of thought and commentary that goes like this:"I like Barack Obama, and think he's a great guy and would make a great president. Unfortunately, there are too many racists in this...
View ArticleWhat Would it Take in NC to Erase Clinton's PA Pop Vote?
The popular vote is a fallacy, as I've written before. A brief recap: 1) Candidates would camp out in large urban areas like LA and Brooklyn and never spend so many millions trying to split 200,000...
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The North Carolina Democratic Primary: Tracking Results
It's Tuesday, Sixo de Mayo, 2008. Someone forgot to tell North Carolina it wasn't a big, mattering state in time to cancel this foolishness. So they're having it. Polls close at 7:30 EDT.IMMEDIATELY...
View ArticleMy Advice to Fellow Obama Supporters for Unity (Updated)
This will be a relatively short diary, attempting to expand on a comment I made in dawnt's excellent diary.There are calls for unity from Obama supporters and Clinton supporters alike. As an Obama...
View ArticleFinally: Even With FL/MI Obama Leads in All ELECTED Super Subcategories
We have crossed another landmark moment in the superdelegate race. With the endorsement of Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR) and the flip of Rep. Donald Payne (NJ), even under Clinton counting of the...
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Math and Magic Numbers on West Virginia's Primary Day
Today is May 13, 2008, and West Virginia, a state that matters like all the rest, is going to the polls.We already know this will be a bad day for Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count. But I...
View ArticleAll This Punditry, and I Just Have To Laugh
I confess, I didn't even watch one second of cable news on Tuesday. I played poker. I got a friend on the phone nearly 3 hours after the polls closed, and he gave me a hilarious, gorgeously profane...
View Article(Updated) Restless Math Syndrome: The Edwards 7 Premise (w/Poll)
May 20, Barack Obama will declare pledged delegate victory. Oregon'll be a fun results tracker diary.3 weeks ago, Jed grasped the importance of perception of whether it's voters or supers putting...
View ArticleOregon Democratic Primary: Tracking Results (Still Updating)
It's the 20th of May, 2008. The Great State of Oregon will officially, historically give Barack Obama the pledged delegate majority, and I know that means Oregon matters.I dedicate this to my friend...
View ArticleObama Should Seat MI/FL in Full: May 23 Delegate Math (Updated)
All numbers updated with 1 OR super, 2 CA supers, 2 Edwards NH pledged confirmations. Rachel Maddow has it mostly right. She was right on the night of May 6, the lone voice insisting the Clintons...
View ArticleThese Are the People Who Must Reject and Denounce
Warning: this is an uncharitable, venting rant. I am angry, and to give you an idea, we are headed to Rude Punditville. Stop right now if you don't want to read it. Awhile back, I wrongly made a...
View ArticleVirtual Magic Numbers, Friday May 30, 2008
An update to last Friday's diary, with news of interveningly gained supers and the advisory about half-seating of FL/MI under discussion. Also news from Chuck Todd on "2026" and "2210," see below.This...
View ArticleIs 2118 the Magic Number?
AP says so, NBC says so, everyone except the great DCW is pretty much saying so.But is it true?Here is the most recent pdf the DNC put out listing all superdelegates who weren't add-ons. It was...
View ArticlePersonal Announcement & Results Tracking the Last, Best Primaries
It's the 3d of June, 2008. Mattering states are voting.On this day in history, nearly 40 years to the day of one of the country's darkest moments, Barack Obama has secured enough delegates to clinch...
View ArticleObama on Jon Tester
Sparked by Kos'front page Tester post the other day, and while I'm in a VP mindset.Before the comments go wild with misinterpretation, I'm not suggesting I think Obama will pick Jon Tester as VP. That...
View ArticleAl Giordano Is Right: We Need Grown Up Activism
This is a response diary to a pretty stupid trend of breathless armchair diaries. I'm not naive enough to think it will stop, but I want to offer the organizer's perspective. Campaign organizers...
View ArticleThirty Five to One
Cross posted at FiveThirtyEight.(Following on yesterday's organizing diary, I thought this would be a useful scoop.)With this morning’s Jonathan Martin front-page piece on McCain’s organizing surge at...
View ArticleDear Mark, Be Ashamed To Die
Short but sweet.Most of my reactions to the Josh Green piece for The Atlantic on the epic clusterfuck of the Clinton campaign are opinion and not analysis, so I'm posting them here rather than at...
View ArticleYes.
McCain spokesman Brian Rogers:"Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a...
View ArticleAn Open Letter to Ron Paul from St. Paul (with Poll)
Dear Ron,Let me introduce myself. I'm Sean. We've never met, but, dude, you are killing me. Please make it stop.You see, I thought I had found a nice little place to crash for free the week of the...
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